Apollo Global Management, Inc. is an American asset management firm that primarily invests in alternative assets.[2][3][1] As of 2025, the company had $840 billion of assets under management, including $392 billion invested in credit, including mezzanine capital, hedge funds, non-performing loans, and collateralized loan obligations, $99 billion invested in [[private equity], and $46.2 billion invested in real assets, which includes real estate and infrastructure. The company invests money on behalf of pension funds, financial endowments, and sovereign wealth funds, as well as other institutional and individual investors.[1]. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_Global_Management (more)

Simon Willison: My review of Claude Code Interpreter, released under a very confusing name. Today on the Anthropic blog: Claude can now create and edit files: (more)

video streaming platform

Jonny Miller: The Best Decision-Making Is Emotional. In my work as an executive coach... (more)

For one week in January 2012, data scientists skewed what almost 700,000 FaceBook users saw when they logged into its service. Some people were shown content with a preponderance of happy and positive words; some were shown content analyzed as sadder than average. And when the week was over, these manipulated users were more likely to post either especially positive or negative words themselves... The effect the study documents is very small, as little as one-tenth of a percent of an observed change... when researchers reduced the appearance of either positive or negative sentiments in people’s News Feeds—when the feeds just got generally less emotional—those people stopped writing so many words on Facebook... Susan Fiske had earlier conveyed to The Atlantic that the experiment was IRB-approved. “I was concerned,” Fiske told The Atlantic on Saturday, “until I queried the authors and they said their local institutional review board had approved it—and apparently on the grounds that Facebook apparently manipulates people's News Feeds all the time.” (more)

Cedric Chin: ‘Strong Opinions, Weakly Held’ Doesn't Work That Well. Instead of withholding judgment until an exhaustive search for data is complete, I will force myself to make a tentative forecast based on the information available, and then systematically tear it apart, using the insights gained to guide my search. The only problem with it is that it doesn’t seem to work that well. (more)

Book by Philip Tetlock

Zvi Mowshowitz: The $140,000 Question. There was a no good, quite bad article by Michael Green that went viral. (2025-11-23) Green Poverty Line Is A Lie (more)

Zvi Mowshowitz: Childhood and Education Roundup #5. Bullying: Why do those who defend themselves against bullies so often get in more trouble than bullies? This is also true in other contexts but especially true in school. (more)

Sports activity that is actively managed, esp by 3rd parties, see esp Youth Sports run by adults, vs Pick-up Games.

a bug up my butt: is it the passive Consumerism of the Spectacle? The arbitrary yet emotionally-intensive Group Identification (Tribalism) ("my team can beat your team") (Pavlovian training for "my country can beat your country"?)? The pretense of College Sports and Olympics events as involving Amateur-s? (more)

Author of Free-Range Kids

Zvi Mowshowitz: Childhood and Education Roundup #7 (more)

Venkatesh Rao: The History and Future of Memeing Things Into Reality. In early 2021, a ragtag group of Reddit users sent Wall Street into a frenzy by memeing a struggling video game retailer’s stock to unimaginable heights. What started as an inside joke about GameStop shares suddenly became very real: the stock’s price skyrocketed 1,700% in weeks, toppling hedge funds and minting overnight millionaires​. (more)

Tell-HN post: Bending Spoons Laid Off Almost Everybody At Vimeo. Various comments: (more)

Gareth Edwards: Breaching the Trust Thermocline Is the Biggest Hidden Risk in Business. In large bodies of water, the temperature drops slowly the deeper one dives. That change can, if the descent is slow enough, feel almost imperceptible. Yet at a certain point, the water temperature drops sharply and alarmingly. This point is the thermocline—a near-physical barrier where warm water meets cold. The shift between the two is sudden and dramatic. (more)

Martino Agostini on Bending Spoons’ Billion-Dollar Pivot: How a Milanese Tech Operator Is Redefining Strategic Finance… In late October 2025, Milan-based technology group Bending Spoons executed one of the most precisely choreographed financing sequences seen in European tech. Within forty-eight hours, the company announced three interlinked moves that reshaped its balance sheet and redefined its market narrative: the planned acquisition of AOL, a $2.8 billion debt package, and a $710 million equity raise. (more)

Philip Eyrikson Tetlock[3] (born March 2, 1954) is a Canadian-American political psychologist and writer, and is currently the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is cross-appointed at the Wharton School and the School of Arts and Sciences. He was elected a Member of the American Philosophical Society in 2019. He has written several non-fiction books at the intersection of psychology, political science and organizational behavior, including Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction; Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?; Unmaking the West: What-if Scenarios that Rewrite World History; and Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics. Tetlock is also co-principal investigator of The Good Judgment Project, a multi-year study of the feasibility of improving the accuracy of probability judgments of high-stakes, real-world events. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_E._Tetlock

We predict that the impact of superhuman AI (ASI) over the next decade will be enormous, exceeding that of the Industrial Revolution. We wrote a scenario that represents our best guess about what that might look like.1 It’s informed by trend extrapolations, wargames, expert feedback, experience at OpenAI, and previous forecasting successes. by Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean. https://ai-2027.com/ (more)

Zvi Mowshowitz on AI 2027: Responses. Yesterday I covered Dwarkesh Patel’s excellent podcast coverage of AI 2027 with Daniel Kokotajlo and Scott Alexander. Today covers the reactions of others. (more)